The Online Market is Saturated: Why Brand is Your Only Differentiator
I love the process of synthesizing complex trends into a distinct philosophy. Last week, I had the opportunity to do exactly that at the annual Carnegie Conference in Orlando.
My topic was Online Enrollment Strategies (OES). Having worked on the web development side of this space for years, I’ve watched the narrative shift. For a long time, the "online option" was viewed by both students and universities as a second-rate alternative — the path you took only if you couldn't access the "real experience."
The Landscape Has Shifted
That stigma is gone. According to the 10th Annual “Changing Landscape of Online Education (CHLOE)” report:
88% of Chief Online Learning Officers (COLOs) anticipate growth in their online program portfolios over the next three years.
67% of institutions explicitly identify new revenue streams as a primary goal for their online learning initiatives.
25% of institutions report at least 20% enrollment in hybrid programs for undergraduates.
84% of institutions declare increasing enrollment as a key goal for their online programs, with nearly half citing it as their top priority.
65% of institutions report investing in non-degree offerings, up significantly from just 29% in 2019.
Now, online learning is both a strategic imperative and an institutional necessity. The reach of online learning extends from the typical master’s degree market to hybrid undergraduate experiences, micro-credentials, certificates, and pathways. And with so many institutions having entered the space, the online market is saturated.
Differentiation Through Connection
In a saturated market, how do you win? In my presentation, I argued that brand is the last remaining differentiator.
To leverage that brand, institutions need a strategy built on three pillars:
Empathy-Based Creative: We must understand the unique journeys of the online learner — which differ vastly from the traditional residential student.
The Four-Phase Journey: While the phases (Understand, Narrow, Decide, Commit) remain the same across any student journey, the thoughts, feelings, and actions that drive decision-making for online learners are distinct. We need to build empathy through that understanding and create experiences that better support those journeys.
AI as an Enabler: Used properly, AI doesn't replace the human touch — it fuels it. It allows us to create highly personalized content at scale without losing our "soul."
Digging Deeper
I also tied this philosophy into recent research by my Carnegie colleagues, Shankar Prasad and Jared Brickman. Their report, Understanding Today’s Online Learners, identifies 11 distinct online learner profiles, providing the data needed to back up an empathy-led approach.
Preparing the presentation was a gratifying experience, and I’m very glad that attendees found the information relevant and useful.
Contact me if you’d like to get a copy of my deck.